The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor selling, and weak domestic equity market sentiment.
Gold and silver prices saw a significant decline in the national capital, with silver falling by Rs 7,800 to Rs 2.43 lakh per kilogram and gold by Rs 1,500 to Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 grams, as investors booked profits amid persistent doubts over the durability of the West Asia ceasefire.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
The ongoing conflict in West Asia is severely disrupting Bikaner's food exports, causing delays, rising costs, and impacting the supply of popular snacks like bhujia and papad to Gulf and European markets.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The US has temporarily permitted India to accept Russian oil already on ships to ensure energy supplies amid the conflict with Iran. This short-term measure is not expected to significantly benefit Russia financially.
Uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran conflict has significantly impacted India's mutual fund industry, leading to a sharp decline in new fund offers (NFOs) in March, despite numerous regulatory approvals. This geopolitical tension, coupled with existing market strain and distributor hesitation, has dampened investor sentiment and affected overall inflows.
Trump has said he would be present at the signing ceremony in Islamabad. Don't be surprised if the Pakistani hosts make it a grand event in the geopolitics of the region. Trump would love that, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a substantial amount from Indian equities in the first half of March, driven by geopolitical tensions, rupee depreciation, and concerns about crude oil prices.
India is closely monitoring developments related to a proposed American legislation that seeks to impose up to 500 per cent tariff on countries procuring Russian crude oil.
Benchmark indices tumbled about 2 per cent on Friday, capping one of the most turbulent weeks for domestic equities as investors fretted that the West Asian conflict could drag on for weeks or even months.
India's retail inflation marginally increased to 3.4 per cent in March, up from 3.21 per cent in February, primarily due to an uptick in certain food items and the initial impact of the West Asia crisis on fuel prices, according to government data.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
Trump has made it clear: the US will not lift its blockade of Iranian ports until a deal is signed.
Indian benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty rallied for the second consecutive day, closing nearly 1 per cent higher, driven by gains in metal and auto sectors and positive global market trends.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and foreign fund outflows.
Iranian forces fired upon three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with one possibly headed for Gujarat, raising concerns about maritime security in the strategic waterway.
The contraction in total reserves was driven by a fall in gold reserves, which dropped $13.49 billion to $117.19 billion during the reported week.
Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged in early trading session on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent from current 25 per cent.
Indian private sector and State-run refiners continued to receive crude oil from Russian suppliers even after November 21 -- the winding-down date for US sanctions on supplies from leading Russian oil producers imposed in October -- as new intermediaries sprung up in West Asia to sell the oil, according to senior refining sources and ship tracking data.
In his first major national address since hostilities began, Trump said the ongoing military campaign, dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury', has delivered 'swift, decisive, overwhelming victories'.
Former US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran has agreed to return its "nuclear dust" to the United States as part of broader assurances not to pursue nuclear weapons. He expressed optimism about ongoing negotiations and a potential deal.
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas on Friday reiterated that India has sufficient stock of crude oil, petrol and diesel, while ensuring an uninterrupted supply of LNG and LPG despite disruptions caused by the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
This sharp Iranian response came after a series of uncompromising remarks from the US president.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop in the national capital due to a global selloff driven by inflation concerns, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
US President Donald Trump indicated the possibility of further military operations against Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export hub, claiming previous strikes had significantly damaged its infrastructure.
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 48.29 lakh crore since the West Asia war began on February 28, leading to a significant downturn in the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has announced an economic relief package to mitigate the impact of the West Asia conflict, including fuel price reductions and support from India for petrol and diesel supplies.
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The clock on the ceasefire is running out. But everyone's already whispering about round two, possibly as soon as this weekend.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has proposed a 20-point policy agenda to the finance ministry, including a conflict-linked emergency credit line guarantee scheme and tax rationalisation on energy inputs, to support MSMEs, exporters, and energy-intensive industries affected by the ongoing West Asia war.
Qatar, India's largest supplier of imported natural gas, has declared force majeure on deliveries following a halt in production in the wake of an Iranian drone strike -- a disruption that has led to a cut in supplies to Indian industry by up to 40 per cent, sources said.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
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